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2023 championship position: 3rd, 406 points
Speedcafe’s 2024 championship prediction: 4th
Ferrari is an enigma on the grid as it struggles to deliver the results one feels it is capable of.
On the driver front, it has two of the fastest guys on the grid in Charles Leclerc (who has just inked a new contract) and Carlos Sainz – I rated the latter the second best driver behind Max Verstappen in 2023.
That’s a controversial call, especially because others had strong seasons, but he capitalised on his opportunities – his performance in Singapore was one of the best grand prix performances you could hope to see.
Alongside him, Leclerc is arguably the most rapid driver over a single lap in Formula 1.
Alas, in 2023 the machinery at their disposal was weaker over a race distance and had a tendency to burn up its tyres.
The SF-23 wasn’t an especially bad car, but it had weaknesses and was difficult to drive, Sainz and Leclerc often contradicting each other with their feedback, which suggested an inconsistent platform.
That is ultimately what held it back last year. The Ferrari power unit is capable of delivering wins, as are its drivers, but the chassis was not good enough.
And that’s a combination of mechanical grip and aerodynamics.
Ferrari was fast in a straight line, which suggests the efficiency of the aero was there, and it performed well in Singapore, suggesting it was solid when the downforce was cranked on.
The degradation issues meanwhile indicate a mechanical weakness in the design, a point reinforced by the simple fact Haas suffered the same issue.
Haas buys in what it can from Ferrari, so its fate is linked to the Scuderia’s. The common weakness implies a common underlying issue.
But car design to the side, there are operational issues the team also needs to ensure are ironed out.
Strategy has to be high on that list as, while there were positive signs of change at some events (it made a brave call in Canada), it remains a weakness in comparison to its rivals.
While Sainz won in Singapore, Leclerc was seemingly abandoned on the strategy front.
There is no doubt changes made to the strategy team for 2023 saw it make a step forward, but that needs to continue.
It was also encouraging that the SF-23 remained consistent towards the front of the field all season.
While Red Bull Racing was the runaway class leader, the order behind it was turbulent.
First, there was Aston Martin, then Mercedes and even McLaren in a season that epitomised perhaps better than any other in F1 history the importance of the development race.
And through all that, Ferrari remained largely consistent. It wasn’t the best, but it was far from the worst.
It ended the season about as far away from the sharp end of the race as it had started the year, which suggests a couple of things.
First is that Red Bull Racing had a massive advantage and didn’t have to start trying until late in the year, but also that Ferrari’s development rate was good.
It overhauled Aston Martin in the first half of the year and remained there or thereabouts with the rapidly improving McLaren team in the second half.
That is a positive trajectory and, assuming it can maintain that, will leave it in a good position to challenge for podiums in 2024.
Will it be challenging for wins and the world title? That seems a bridge too far simply because of the head start Red Bull Racing gained last year.
But with a solid package, good development rate, and signs of improvement on the pit wall, there’s a good chance Ferrari will be in contention with Mercedes and McLaren as they all pursue Red Bull Racing.
